9/17/2010

"Just Listen & You'll Hear"

Think you're pro-life? 65 people starve to death every minute. In 2010 America will spend about 758 billion dollars on military and homeland security, or about 22,187 dollars for each of the 34 million people who will die of starvation this year. If you're pro life, take whatever time energy and resources you are willing to donate towards your movement, and redirect it to these starvation victims. It will be a much easier battle, save far more lives, and won't contribute to social conflicts.

8·9·10 (!)
So here are some more thoughts on the whole "end result of capitalism" problem I'm always blathering on about. First, I recently noticed a compensating effect by which new jobs are invented, usually due to new technology that enables humans to contribute to corporations in a new way, (e.g., computers allow us to make all sorts of nifty charts easily—more seriously, they allow us to perform complex analysis tasks that we couldn't have carried out by hand previously). 

Second, I recently heard an advertisement for a radio story about farming cooperation, where a bunch of volunteers pick from a list of small farms and then show up on a scheduled day to help out. At least thats what the story sounded like. It's easy to imagine some work remaining human simply because humans enjoy it, doing it in their free time, free of charge. This is one way leisure time can be filled productively.

Thirdly, this article in the NYTimes  (use bugmenot if you want to try to avoid registered login), this article points out a certain demographic which seems to be valuing a less consumerist oriented lifestyle. I think this indicates two things (though the article doesn't really comment on either of them), one, that we have reached (maybe surpassed) a saturating point about material possessions, and the happiness incurred by reducing those things is statistically significant! And second, ———must finish reading the article first! Four pages, not one... also I forgot the second point I wanted to make—too many distractions.


8·10·10
There is talk amongst his enemies, of Christopher Hitchens experiencing a "deathbed conversion". Upon reflection, it's humorous to imagine that a human's decline from a healthy state to the moment of death would carry with it an increase in mental facilities of some sort, mostly because the opposite is so painfully obvious. Case in point, dementia, Alzheimer's, senility, these are all brain disorders leading to decreased cognitive capacity, and also strongly correlated with age. Case example, Kurt Gödel, among the most brilliant of logicians of all time, responsible for some very important 20th century results in mathematics grew severely paranoid as he aged. In one incident, a friend found him freezing in his home in (I presume NJ) winter, with all the windows open, convinced the KGB was filling his house with poisonous gas. He didn't die of "natural" causes, he starved to death. He did not trust anyone to cook for him except his wife, so when she fell ill and could not cook for him anymore, he simply did not eat. Even if a vocal atheist were to provide a deathbed conversion example, for these reasons, (as well as he fact that arguments from personal revelations are vacuous), there can be no value to it. 

Wait a second! Can we reformulate the position momentum uncertainty principle as a position/time uncertainty principle? And then we also have an energy time one? Can we view all this as time being fuzzy? Maybe not, I need to go check. Cause "fuzzy time" seems right up the alley of event horizons and gravity... update 9·15·10: This all seems too simple and obvious to actually have any meaning and yet have gone unnoticed. I need to stop thinking about complicated matters that I am not well trained in late at night.

"Tapping the earths enerkachoo."
"The horse says 'doctorate denied'."
"Something sinister won't build itself."

Ha ha ha ha ha! 
To all you intelligent conservatives out there, please, get a handle on this. Conservapedia isn't just making conservatives look stupid and ignorant, it's making them look absurdly ridiculous and paranoid as well. Compare Conservapedia's relativity denialism with this article.

It baffles me that they would dare challenge relativity. Andy must either be crazy, or clinically paranoid. He should realize that when his young followers take an interest in the lies of relativity, they are much more likely to find the millions of supportive papers and articles and related topics, with every degree of comprehensibility, and details ranging from the broad ideas down to the most specific nuances, all of the experiments and real life applications. Compared to his paltry claim of liberal conspiracy. 

"Science cannot move forward without heaps!"
"Dude, I bid you a fond cowabunga! I'm off to laugh with the reaper!"

Hitchens speaking about deathbed conversions:
"the idea that I would make a pact, or a wager, with the supernatural in which I don't believe, in the sort of fearful hope of better treatment… suggests that what people must think of their god is that he is either a fraud, or a monster. That he would smile on that kind of plea, and that kind of uh, loss of dignity."


8·27·10
To argue that we won't ever reproduce the human brain is to argue that some aspect of it is either unknowable, or un-build-able. But we know it can be built, (since the body builds it "naturally"), and it's hard to imagine that an aspect of it could possibly be unknowable, since the entirety is right there in front of us, at any stage of it's development.


8·28·10
It's interesting how many charity organizations we have dedicated to fighting currently incurable disease. Not that I oppose such organizations, it's just that there are so many other causes of suffering & death around the world that are immediately preventable, and which if we were to solve would result in huge savings. That is, instead of invading foreign nations and destroying their infrastructure, in the name of eliminating enemies, how about we flood foreign nations with aid, in the name of making friends? We've spent 743 billion dollars on Iraq. Sure Saddam was a terrible man, having committed the most serious of war crimes in the 80s, having seized power in a horrible way, and having suppressed dissident in the most despicable of ways. But most of his citizens had electricity! Oddly, it was after the first gulf war that Iraq's healthcare system went down the tubes.

I've written a few times before about how many people asked me about the LHC & black holes, leading up to the starting of the particle collider. But a new explanation suddenly occurs to me. People like to imagine black holes in space as being vacuum cleaners, sucking up any celestial body that wanders too near. But space is very, very large. Most of everything is empty space, whether you look at an atom, or a handful of atoms, or the solar system, or the galaxy. It's "power on all scales".

How do we verify that mass is exactly additive? In fact, with relativity, it's not constant (it transforms according to the specified inertial reference frame).

Forced to choose between your religious beliefs, and the life of someone you love dearly, which would you choose? Do the religious answer this question as easily as atheists? I would argue no, not at all. Many religious people, when faced to choose between their beliefs, and accepting a friend/child's homosexuality, choose their faith and reject their friend/child. (That's not to say there aren't plenty of religious people who accept homosexuality, nor to say there aren't atheist homophobes.)


9·1·10
"The result is that about two and a half of the thirteen pounds of plutonium in the pit, (about 20% of the 6.2 kilograms (14 lb) ) fissioned, and converted probably less than 1 gram (0.035 oz) of mass into energy, releasing the energy equivalent of 21 kilotons of TNT or 88 TJ."
Or about 722,000 gallons of gasoline. Update 9·16·10: this is why many people advocate nuclear power playing a role in the reduction of fossil fuel usage, because the energy released by fission (though far less efficient in an actual power reactor), is just insane—that 6.2 kg of Pu only takes up about 1.4 cups of space. This is also the reason why though breeder reactors greatly increase the power generated per amount of fissile material, there are great concerns of proliferation, since breeder reactors would increase the amount of bomb-ready material dramatically. (And we literally have to keep track of every kilogram of the stuff.)

The music here is so awesomely dramatic.
This is a longer documentary on monkeys, with many more interesting facts and behaviors, but also the dramatic scenes of nut cracking. And the stuff about dropping rocks on the cats!


9·6·10
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence," is not always true. When the doctor calls you back and says you tested negative for disease X, she's telling you the search for evidence (the test), turned up no evidence. Obviously this is usually interpreted as good evidence of absence.

You can define marriage as between a man and a woman. And you can define voting as something white men do. And you can define non-white people as property. And in every case, you're treating one person as having more rights than others, effectively denying humans equal status. I don't get it, the progress of human rights has such obvious extensions, and yet people resist every fucking step of the way, even though in retrospect it's appalling to think that it was once acceptable to buy and sell other people. Even though that was only 150 fucking years ago! And interracial marriage was illegal only 43 years ago. For whatever reason, it takes humans a very long time to open their eyes to the obvious. Open your eyes!

"Freaquel Rights"

Draw map of inconsistencies in religion, small chains of logic that don't really fit together.
Draw map of scientific interpretation over top of all the small chains, showing they fit together fine.
A support group/relief fund for priests & others affected and afflicted by/with religion.


9·8·10
"This is the dangedest wang I've ever doodled." —Bubblegum Tate.

9·10·10
When someone says, "I can't imagine living in a world where god didn't exist", or something to that effect, are they saying they have too little faith in humanity to imagine we don't have a supreme ruler somewhere? Are they saying they have too little faith in themselves? Or instead of faith, confidence in their own abilities to make the world a better place? Maybe they're saying they don't want to live in a world where they have no chance of a pleasant eternity afterwards, like heaven, but is that any different than a child saying they wouldn't want to live in a world where santa didn't exist to give them gifts each year? Although I don't like my finite lifespan, I'm glad to know that there is no one so evil as to damn a fraction of my fellow humans to eternal suffering. Which I would find even more excruciating were I to find myself in the oddly rewarded heaven group. But regardless of all that, I aspire to leave this world in an even better condition than I found it, for whoever follows me. And in general, humans have done that. We've eliminated nearly every source of suffering that nature ever threw at us. Except one another. We don't fear being eaten—a fear most organisms battle daily, for their entire lives. We've manipulated our food supply to the point of common obesity, shaping both animals and plants into high-energy sources of nourishment, virtually eliminating the threat of starvation, another threat to every other organism on the planet, every day of their existence. We have mostly mitigated the dangers of weather, extending our habitat far beyond our natural hides would allow. We've even eradicated some of the most devastating and brutal diseases ever to afflict humankind. But I'm not sure we've made a lot of progress on the "don't kill each other". Unfortunately we've gotten much more efficient at that, and possibly even more frequent, though it's hard to say, with history's wild ups-and-downs of genocide. On the bright side, globally we have a policy of not condoning genocide, and slavery, and often the global community takes positive action in response to such actions, though we're not that great at it, and we do still ignore a lot of obvious human rights abuse. But it's improved!

People are often fond of saying "anything's possible", and "science has been wrong in the past, it could (or will!) be wrong again in the future", as if tomorrow up could be down. But most things cannot be, as they have been ruled out by observation. A trivial example is the solar system. For thousands of years, primitive humans believed Earth to be the center of the universe, and believed Jupiter orbited the Earth. Better observations ruled out such a model, and no new evidence will ever allow that model in, unless we rewrite the definition of orbit, which is obviously different than science being wrong. Isaac Asimov has an excellent essay I've probably linked before.

I don't understand people's concept of the supernatural, for logical reasons. I have trouble seeing room for something inaccessible to scientific probing and yet influential to the physical world. It seems to me that anything that happens must in fact be within the laws of nature, and any time those laws appear violated, it is merely an indicator that our model of those laws is incomplete (which as a physicist I find very exciting).
It's not even that I demand proof of the claim of the existence of the supernatural, long before that I want a logical explanation. It's as if you told me you had an object that was both very nearly spherical, and very nearly cubical, simultaneously. Obviously these two properties contradict one another, and I wouldn't bother asking to see such an object, I'd first want to know how it is someone can think both definitions can be satisfied simultaneously, without contradiction.

Where is my list of amazing science facts?
Including: trees are made primarily of air.
The earth is round.
There are more molecules of water in a cup than there are cups of water on the planet.
Nine out of ten cells in your body are not you.

Someone somewhere recently said that intelligence is not selected for. But that is completely incorrect! We most certainly were naturally selected, and it was clearly only our intelligence that was selected for—in the few million years we've been diverging from the other monkeys we've dramatically increased our intelligence and all but lost every other physical advantage we may ever have had. (Maybe walking upright? Maybe opposable thumbs?) And boy has the selection been driven far; we are the only species with any shot of surviving the death of our planet, or the foresight to prevent ourselves from causing our own extinction.


9·13·10
"On the first date? You know I'm not that kind of indescribable horror."
Ha ha ha ha, "there is no god."

Hmm… how about a program that takes photos or video and makes 3d models, then makes prints for paper to print & assemble the models?


9·15·10
I think I might heavily suffer from the false consensus effect. 
And an over-blown sense of concern for others' wellbeing makes me feel like I live inside the Abilene paradox.
"Moreover, novelty triggers attraction." I got that going for me.
But don't discount the role of inaction.

I was reading about plutonium today, and apparently the sum total of North Korea's plutonium production should be less than 70 kilograms (154 lbs). Some of this was used in the bomb they blew up, while the rest of it should still be lying around, with small amounts left in the filtering process equipment. Based on measurements of such equipment, the IAEA should be able to determine whether or not the amount they claim to have made is really what they made, and therefore whether it's all there or not. Though I have to wonder, what is to stop them from mixing it with a combination of say, tungsten and iridium, which would deceivingly increase its weight, so they could divert the rest off to a secret project? Thats how impossible it really is to track this stuff. A study advocated that the IAEA reduce its "significant quantity" (SQ) from the current 8 kg down to 1 kg (2.2 lbs), since a technologically advanced society can build a 1 kiloton yield device with only 1 kg of Pu. (A poor tech society needs 3 kg min for a bomb.) It's also worth noting that the whole 70 kg would only take up about a gallon of space. And there is about 500 tons of Pu on the planet. Oops. If the arms race and nuclear weapons stockpiling doesn't qualify as clinical insanity, what possibly could?




9·17·10
I want to switch to multiple posts a day, instead of one long ridiculous post every few weeks or months. I wonder if I'll do that. My wrist hurts a lot.

9/15/2010

Past Due

Preface: I had compiled this entry back sometime around 7·11, but the formatting in the newer editor of the blogger software made the links all funky, and some of the style carried over from pasting, which I really didn't like, but fixing it seemed like a huge pain (I had gone straight back to the pure html, which was way more complicated than I had started with), so I just didn't post anything for the last few months. But now I've reinspected it and it isn't nearly as terrible as it once seemed. And so here is this post, with the next two months of nonsense to follow shortly afterwards.






5·20·10
Hopefully I can book CERN!
Do you think adding this in the comments field helped or hurt my odds? They recommended we book 3-4 months (instead of a few weeks) in advance:
I wish we had thought of this 3-4 months ago. We both have undergraduate degrees in physics, does that help our case? I've also personally explained the safety margin [of the LHC and black holes] to many concerned friends and acquaintances following the media hype last year :-) Thanks for the chance!

Update 7·11·10: CERN was great! Pictures (eventually) on facebook.

5·26·10
"A very special kind of monster."

5·27·10
Always one foot on my mind.
Is this another dead end?
Break my fall.
Sorry, I'm busy rewiring my brain.

So you try to figure out what you want, and you try to figure out how much you want what it is you want. And maybe you even just get hung up on trying to figure out why it is you want what you want. But somehow this is all too much. And it doesn't work. And I haven't figured it out yet.

Hmm... this is interesting:
"What this means is that in a broad sense a theistic worldview is empirically unfalsifiable…just like a naturalistic one."
From some loon PZ is talking about here.
I find it interesting, because on some level he is right: naturalism and theism are both unfalsifiable. But for different reasons.
Theism is unfalsifiable because its claims are limited to that which cannot be measured, by definition. It's not just unfalsifiable, it's ultimately unknowable in any interpretation (else we could all agree on one true consistent theism, which is laughable).
Naturalism on the other hand is unfalsifiable for a reason more akin to why conservation of energy has always been true: because our concept of naturalism is the claim that: that which exists and influences the world is in fact knowable. This cannot be falsified because probabilistic laws allow seemingly uncaused behavior to occur (like the vacuum fluctuations). So it's difficult to see how a deity can even fit into reality, or any sort of spiritualistic/non-naturalistic entity or event or influence… if it has a causal influence, it could be described by either probabilistic or deterministic mathematics. If it can be observed, it can be modeled. And if it can't be observed, then in what sense does it exist at all?
In other words, spiritualism, or mentalism, requires a unknowable element, whereas naturalism forbids unknowable elements (or at least unmeasurable elements).
These are the essential components to the definitions of these words, and they are also the most basic reasons why mentalism is completely useless.
The utility of a belief that requires at least one part to be unknowable is really zero. There are useful things in which much is unknown, for instance, black box arguments in computer science, but in those instances we don't require an element to be unknown, it just so happens that knowing every element is not required for the argument to be useful.
That is, there is a difference between arguments in which steps are unknown, and arguments in which steps cannot be known.


5·30·10
Afterbirthday party?

Can you disrespect an idea, belief or tradition, without disrespecting people who hold/support/cherish such an idea/belief/tradition?
If the answer is 'yes', then why is disrespecting a religion often interpreted as disrespecting people?
Otherwise, why does respecting a person mean restraining oneself from speaking earnestly and openly?
Aren't there situations when politeness deserves a back seat to well being?

As I've aged I seem to have become increasingly intolerant of ideas I'm not interested in. It's a bit embarrassing really. This is quite obvious in certain instances, such as the rubik's cube notation. I never learned to read it, because it didn't interest me enough. I didn't even really bother to try.

I do think it was mostly my brain seeing a pattern where there wasn't one.
New game: eat juicy fruits with no napkin (nor napkin equivalents).

I don't respect any of the other religions either, and I wouldn't hesitate to mock any of them. I am an antitheist and I consider major organized religions to be more responsible for human suffering (both now and throughout history)

I consider christianity to be the number one threat to global human wellbeing, and islam to be a close second (they just tend to wield less power).

If moderate muslims want my respect then they should come out and support satire of their religion. However, I don't see why I should respect anyone who holds a religious belief above the life of another human being. Furthermore, if we don't push this issue then we essentially condone their behavior, and we reinforce the idea that religious belief is somehow equal or greater than human rights.
And if homosexuality carried any of the tenets of most of the major religions I wouldn't hesitate to criticism and mock them either. If the average muslim is a tolerant peaceful person, then I would like to invite them in combatting the extremists. Unfortunately I think moderate muslims are probably more enabling extremists, much like the large group of christian moderates allows for a larger group of extremist christians to persist. It isn't that moderate christians or muslims are intolerant of other people, it's that they inhibit the criticism of the extremists, making it look as if criticism is some kind of discrimination, or bigotry. But it isn't: religious extremists are one of the greatest causes of human suffering, especially given that many of the other great causes are not so nearly under human control (e.g. disease, and natural death).

I haven't drawn mohammed yet, but as an antitheist—and more so as a proponent of free speech—I vehemently oppose the notion that any religious belief should trump freedom of speech. I would strongly agree that we not persecute anyone for their religion, but persecuting the religions themselves I am all for. Update 7·11·10: I did draw Muhammed for "Draw Muhammed Day" 

If christians or jews were murdering cartoonists for depicting jesus or moses (or yaweh or god or anyone really) I would reply in the exact same manner without hesitation.

I think that if muslims want to be respected they need to behave like civil members of society. (Note: I already respect the many muslims who would denounce the cartoon-induced murders.

(1 + 0.9 cos(8t)) (1 + 0.1 cos(24t)) (0.9 + 0.05 cos(200t)) (1 + sin(t)), with t from -π to π.


6·1·10
So why don't we put a 1000 ton granite block on the oil leak? (Assuming we could make such a block, I think we could probably manipulate it, though 5000 feet is a very long way.)

So I went looking for 1000 ton granite blocks on google, and found this: http://www.sacredsites.com/middle_east/lebanon/baalbek.htm which mentions 1000 ton, 65+ foot long stones used in ancient Roman architecture! I guess it is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baalbek in modern day Lebanon. Maybe a 1000 ton block wouldn't work either…

I suppose my thinking goes like this: when I say I am a seven, I am saying that the claims humans make about the existence of a god are patently false. Assuming they could possibly have some truth to them, it would be out of shear coincidence, and not due to any sort of casual connection relating the two. But that is ridiculous speak. If I make up my own deity right now, it has no greater chance of being right or wrong than one our society has collectively evolved for tens to hundreds or even thousands of years. Which is to say that none of them have any chance of being right. It is simply absurd to believe in the easter bunny, or santa claus or the tooth fairy, if you are an intelligent creature with a reasonably experienced and matured view of the world. 



6·6·10
These people are amazing. I mean, AMAZING!

"This is a seri... I'm a seri... I'm, uh... I've tried to be a serious man."

 maybe a 10,000 ton block? I remember reading that those battle ships with 16" guns weigh 55,000 tons, I wonder what an aircraft carrier weighs…

As directed by xkcd, I read Bruce Schneier on Security, and holy crap does he have a great point. And I'd like to say I avoid that often, but it certainly isn't true. And to prove it I must only admit (regrettably) that I went to read the article with the legitimate intent to find out what the worst case scenario for the oil leak actually is. (This morbid fascination with worst case scenarios is pretty persuasive, and embarrassing; this morning on NPR they mentioned a worst case being December, or even years, which seems awfully ridiculous. But then again I have no idea what a reasonable estimate would look like, though I find it hard to imagine that not enough information is known to make a reliable estimate.)

And now I've read an actual assessment as well. It's got some interesting things in it.

Later I mentioned the big rock idea to Brian Hayes, who pointed out that the fear would be that oil would continue leaking around the smushed pipe, and then we would have no chance of clamping onto the pipe to stop the flow with equipment. It makes a lot of sense, and it gave me a chill: for the first time I am thinking that it may be the case that humans simply cannot stop the leak. How terrifying.




7·7·10


Anonymity is weird; on the one hand, it is an indispensable feature of progress, allowing those who know to safely reveal what they know to the public. On the other hand, the greater the degree of privacy we maintain, the more in the dark we all feel about what is and isn't allowed, or appropriate, or common or reasonable, etc. 


A part of me wants to emigrate. Not because somewhere else would be so much better, but that we are simply so much worse. Our consumption and our wars overwhelm me. It is something I wish to stop participating in.


Purdy!



7·8·10
Okay, so under my own volition I am revising my question. If the rate of automation can be made to produce at a faster pace than the appetite for acquiring new technology, then we will inevitably have replaced ourselves, right? That is, we automate this and that task, through out our society, including the most mundane and simple tasks, as well as some of the most incomprehensibly complex and important tasks. For instance, processor design and construction are both heavily reliant on computers and robotics. There must be a threshold parameter, after which the degree of automation in society can replace all practical jobs. Starting with devices that can build themselves, thus reducing the cost to materials only. 

"There was that amazing light -- the rich blue skies, dotted with scudding, big-bellied clouds that shifted the sunlight, making fields and rocks broody, then brilliant, in a flash. Monet capitulated, came to Honfleur, and he and Boudin painted side by side, outside, using portable easels and paint in tubes."


"And suddenly, suddenly, Claude Monet just understood what his friend had been telling him about," says Aussenac. "He understood. He said afterward that it was just like a curtain that [had opened] in front of his eyes. He understood what his life was about, and what painting was about."
I love Nedelle's song "Friends Ancestors" so much:
love is little - love is low
love will make our spirit grow
grow in peace - grow in light
love will do the thing thats right

...I feel like such a hippy lately.
Which is perfectly fine by me.


7·9·10
Holy cow! The proton is even smaller than we thought! Or maybe… there could be a mistake somewhere. Or new physics! Though that does seem highly improbable. I'm guessing we're overlooking something in the theory.


I want to respond with this, but it seems too far off the focus of his work:
In Copenhagen a few weeks ago Victor Stenger gave a presentation on why the fine-tuning argument is fallacious, though I believe he omitted the cosmological constant issue, dismissing 120 orders of magnitude discrepancies as probably indicative of us making an error or overlooking an important factor. Apparently he is writing a book about the other main arguments though, involving the production of carbon and stability of hydrogen, etc.

I don't really know what you're talking about here Sean, but I feel obligated to add my two cents (which I hope are sufficiently related).

I consider fine tuning to have two fatal flaws: it only applies to life as we know it, and, it requires that the universe could have been different—that the these empirically determined constants are in fact arbitrary, rather than the result of some yet-unknown mathematical process. I.e., it might be the that empirically measured parameters of the standard model all originate from pure mathematics, the way e does. In which case they would not be finely tuned, but rather inflexible.

It is conceivable that we could build a physical theory from pure mathematics (e.g. number theory) which would then be exempt from this argument, but in the mean time, as long as our theories have open parameters that must be measured by experiment, there will always be people claiming that those parameters were tuned just for us. What is important is to remind such people that they must also assert that there is no purely-mathematical origin for these parameters, and that therefore we can never find any such origin. I'm not sure I can accept any claim that something is in principle unknowable, unless it is a computer scientist with a proof of the claim...
Faith is simultaneously an assertion of strong confidence that something is true, and an acknowledgement that one is ignorant of the assertion's relationship to reality. As such I find it a supremely arrogant position, as well as ignorant. Arrogance with ignorance is intolerable; at least informed arrogance is just displeasing. 

Hope on the other hand is under the influence of desire, a marginally more acceptable justification for assertions based in ignorance. (Or often contrary to some evidence.)

AronRa is always thought provoking.

Heres a fun calculation to give a shot: how much does the temperature of a city rise solely due to AC units? Some assumptions: model the city as a cylinder with height… 200 feet? Furthermore assume the temperature outside is… 95F, and that most people have their AC set to 75F. And that they are cooling rooms of size… 10x20x10 ft. Actually, I'm going to do all this in metric, so just choose reasonable sounding parameters. Anything else? Nothing is coming to mind. Go ahead and use the maximum possible efficiency of a heat pump too. Oh, and maybe… 50% adoption of AC?